American importers are seeing a welcome shift in ocean shipping costs amid concerns over tariffs and fluctuating consumer demand. The average spot rate to ship a 40-foot container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast dropped to $5,840 at the beginning of this week—down from about $6,000 the previous week, according to Freightos, an online booking platform.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index also recorded a 6.8% decline from the previous week, influenced by a nearly 27% drop in rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast, as reported by HSBC Global Research.
The recent price spike originated in mid-May when the U.S. temporarily reduced tariffs on imports from China—from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period. This triggered a rush in demand as retailers and manufacturers scrambled to take advantage of lower costs before tariffs potentially rise again.
Industry experts expect that shipping rates from Asia to the U.S. East Coast may also begin to fall in the coming weeks.
Shipping carriers attempted to raise rates in mid-June, but those efforts are faltering. “It seems that carriers have overshot or overestimated how strong demand would be,” said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.
Earlier in the year, U.S. retailers and manufacturers faced compounding pressure from rising shipping costs and elevated tariffs. In April, many carriers removed vessels from China–U.S. routes as demand weakened following the imposition of 145% tariffs.
Despite carriers reintroducing ships into the trans-Pacific trade lanes, the spot rate to ship containers from China to the U.S. West Coast more than doubled between mid-May and early June, according to Freightos.
This was primarily driven by importers rushing to bring in goods ahead of two major deadlines: July 9, when the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on countries including Indonesia and Vietnam, and mid-August, when further tariff hikes on China are being considered.
The surge in shipping activity came just as the peak shipping season began, with retailers preparing for back-to-school and end-of-year holiday demand.
Nathan Strang, director of ocean freight at San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport, noted a shift in importer behavior. Just a few weeks ago, importers were urgently looking for available vessel space. Now, they are focused on securing the lowest possible rates as prices come down rapidly following the initial tariff-driven peak.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that U.S. imports will reach their seasonal peak earlier than usual—hitting the highest point in July. According to the NRF’s Global Port Tracker, U.S. seaports are expected to handle 2.13 million import containers in July, which would be an 8.1% decrease from the same month last year.
The group anticipates import volumes to fall to 1.98 million containers in August, followed by a sharper decline through September and the rest of the year.
Strang added that many importers have already front-loaded their shipments to avoid additional tariff impacts. Now, they are taking a more measured approach to new orders, particularly with uncertainty around consumer spending in the second half of 2025. “No one wants to be holding millions of dollars of inventory in warehouses for six months if they don’t have to,” he said.
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