The U.S. trucking sector is heading into 2026 facing continued uncertainty, as unresolved trade policies, shifting tariff rules and broader economic pressures weigh on freight demand and carrier confidence, according to industry analysts.
Experts say the lack of long-term clarity around global trade and domestic economic conditions is making it difficult for carriers, shippers, and investors to plan ahead with confidence.
“Uncertainty is moving into [2026] without any real understanding of why that uncertainty is there, other than just lack of clarity,” said Eric Starks, chairman of FTR Transportation Intelligence. “Everybody is realizing that they are not going to get that type of certainty. The only time that you get that certainty is when something has been enacted and it has stuck.”
Since taking office in early 2025, Donald Trump placed tariffs at the center of his trade strategy. The administration’s aggressive and frequently changing approach to renegotiating international trade agreements has created instability across global supply chains. That instability is now spilling into a trucking industry already more than two years into a freight downturn.
As 2026 approaches, the industry lacks a clear roadmap on future tariff levels, trade enforcement, and economic growth—factors that directly influence shipping volumes and pricing.
“The broader thing I’m worried about … is the underlying demand for freight,” Starks said. “If we start seeing more and more layoffs — we start seeing the broader economy starting to ease — that’s going to put additional pressure on trucking. It is not 100% clear how this looks at the moment. I think best case scenario would be a flat market into Q1, but you could see noticeable softening Q1 and into Q2 if we start seeing substantial layoffs and the consumer pulling away.”
Starks added that businesses may delay investments in equipment and technology until economic conditions stabilize, which could lead to more difficult operating conditions early in the year.
According to Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, uncertainty intensified in 2025 due to the scale and speed of tariff policy changes.
“What kind of shook people up in 2025 was the U.S. government — President Trump — moved the whole window around what the dimensions of these uncertainties might be,” Rogers said.
“Not, ‘Will we put a tariff of 10% on some aluminum products?’ It’s like, ‘We’re going to put a tariff of 145% on everything from China and 20% from everything everywhere.’ ”
Rogers explained that this aggressive approach sent shockwaves through supply chain planning, turning tariffs into a central economic risk rather than a background concern.
“The story of tariffs isn’t over yet,” Rogers said. “We still have to have a decision from the Supreme Court about the [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] tariffs that the president has implemented — whether they’re legal. And if they’re not, what will replace them? There’s a lot of these national security tariff reviews still going on covering electronics, medical supplies, machinery, critical minerals.”
Legal challenges tied to Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) remain unresolved. These cases, including disputes involving Section 232 tariffs under the Trade Expansion Act, are expected to reach conclusions in early 2026.
Beyond tariffs, Rogers noted that broader trade agreements are also in flux.
“The big one that we are watching, obviously, is the renegotiation of the [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement],” he said. “That’s going to be going on throughout next year and should be completed ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. But I wouldn’t take that for granted. And then we have other deals being signed elsewhere in the world.”
Another major factor shaping the 2026 outlook is tighter enforcement by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). Increased scrutiny around English-language proficiency and non-domiciled commercial driver licenses could permanently remove capacity from the market.
According to Jason Seidl, managing director at TD Cowen, the push for improved safety may have significant pricing implications.
“This is something that’s probably good for the industry overall — and good for the average American — if you’re making the road safer,” said Seidl. “But when you look at pricing on the truckload side — at least for now — the beginning of a move up would probably be a move up in pricing based on capacity coming out.”
Seidl noted that freight demand typically slows after the holiday season, with the industry watching closely for the seasonal demand rebound following the Lunar New Year.
“That’ll give us an idea about how much capacity is coming out the marketplace,” Seidl said.
He pointed to regions such as California, Chicago, and Texas—areas with historically high concentrations of non-domiciled drivers—as early indicators of tightening capacity.
“The government is coming after capacity at a rate that I’ve never seen in over 30 years in the industry,” Seidl added. “If we have a capacity-led improvement in rates, and that is followed by [the Trump administration] trying to jump-start the economy … then the market can get really interesting, potentially.”
Looking ahead, U.S. Bank Corporate Payment Systems expects freight volumes to slowly stabilize in 2026 as companies adjust to new trade realities.
“It will take time for these changes to fully play out,” said Jeff Pape, general manager of transportation at U.S. Bank Corporate Payment Systems. “Capacity could tighten further, especially among smaller carriers, as the market returns to a more steady state.”
Pape also highlighted the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence across the industry.
“One of the most significant trends is the acceleration of technology adoption, especially around AI and automation,” he said. “We’re seeing both shippers and carriers start using AI for practical applications.”
He cited tools such as document intelligence, fraud prevention, and automated manual processes as early use cases helping fleets improve efficiency and reduce operational errors.
Despite the turbulence of recent years, industry leaders see growing cooperation between shippers and carriers as a positive development.
“Another important shift is the way shippers and carriers are working together,” Pape said. “There’s a much greater emphasis on collaboration and transparency, with both sides leveraging data and technology to make smarter, faster decisions. Instead of focusing solely on price, the conversation is increasingly about building long-term partnerships and finding ways to succeed together in a changing environment.”
Similarly, Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics, said the real impact of ongoing changes will become clearer next year.
“We’ve operated in this era of completely shifting sands all year,” Adamo said. “Next year will be when the brass tacks hits of, ‘What does this actually mean for shipping volumes?’ ”
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